You're probably right about flash, but I think it might take a bit longer.
I'm afraid that extrapolating personal experience to estimate a whole world norm is something we all tend to do. The figures, however, speak for themselves. Despite the loud and omnipresent marketing by denizens of Cupertino the iPhone has about a 1% share of the mobile device market, and barely 10% of the smart phone market, although that 10% is a pretty well defined niche, including perhaps a younger demographic thinking of settling down and with enough money to afford one of the best wedding photographers out there
Of the people I know the split is pretty even. Personally the HTC Hero was the bit of kit that impressed me the most. Not that I would ever bother getting one. Well, probably not, anyway.
Just off to have a look at the tutorial.